The highlights on this website

Have your say in our popular discussion forum
Check out the latest House Price Statistics
See the predictions for UK House Prices
Read economic papers on the House Price Crash subject

'Must read/watch' external links

Don't believe the Estate Agents! Visit OurProperty.co.uk to find out the actual sold house prices direct from the Land Registry database
See real price reductions in your area, visit www.propertysnake.co.uk
UK Housing Market discussed on Commodity Watch Radio (mp3 - 13.6Mb - 59 minutes)
An overview of what's happening with house prices in your area with the BBC
Forgotten the last crash? Watch the spitting image video on YouTube
Visit the first-time buyer campaigning website www.pricedout.org.uk
Chris Parker's excellent house price crash flash movie

Thursday, Nov 20, 2008

Auto companies need to submit a plan

MarketWatch: Aid plan for Big Three falters in Congress

Democratic leaders said Thursday there is no deal on aid yet for the Big Three U.S. automakers, and asked the chief executives of those companies to return to Congress with concrete plans on how they would use federal funds to turn their companies around before getting any money from Washington. "Until they show us the plan, we cannot show them the money," said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., at a press conference.

Posted by gardeniadotnet @ 08:31 PM 2 Comments

Confusing article from the FT

Financial Times: Why the Brown critics are wrong

The FT columnist Samuel Brittan attempts to Poo Poo the Brown / Government Poo Pooers. Somehow it doesn't quite work resulting in a blatantly confusing one sided article.

Posted by enuii @ 08:28 PM 1 Comments

The painful consequences of abandoning asset auctions

The Economist: The TARP trap

Holders of toxic mortgage-backed securities had pinned their hopes on the American government’s plan to buy large piles of the stuff through auctions as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Programme (TARP). The decision on November 12th to abandon that approach in favour of direct capital injections has left them shattered.

Posted by gardeniadotnet @ 08:22 PM 1 Comments

Yee Yeeha! No Problem Buddy!

Bloomberg: U.S. Needs to Pump $1.2 Trillion Into Banks, FBR Says

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. may need to spend another $1.2 trillion to recapitalize the eight largest financial institutions and stabilize the markets because private investors won't take the risk, an FBR Capital Markets analyst said. ``The sheer size of the capital deficiency, coupled with the opaque nature of credit risk, will keep private capital sidelined,'' Paul Miller said in a research note yesterday.

Posted by flintster1994 @ 07:08 PM 0 Comments

Yeeha! Anyone else want some cash, just see Mr Paulson!

Timesonline: Shares freefall halted by car bailout support

US senators reached a bipartisan agreement on a bill to support the ailing auto industry, with an announcement expected this afternoon. The Dow Jones industrial average, which had been down more than 200 points in morning trade in New York, rose by 78 points to 8,075.89 at lunchtime as investors welcomed the news. Wall Street had been bracing itself for the possibility that Washington would not approve an emergency $25 billion (£16.7 billion) bridging loan to bail out America’s car industry in time to avert the bankruptcy of at least one big manufacturer.

Posted by flintster1994 @ 07:00 PM 4 Comments

How to go to confession in order to get absolved for your sins

BBC News: RBS boss apologises over losses

"Sir Tom told the meeting he was "sorry" about the financial and human cost that the bank's troubles have caused". So are we. But dont worry, nothing will ever happen to you. You may even be rewarded with a lordship later on for service rendered to GB.

Posted by fjcruiser @ 06:32 PM 0 Comments

Anyone keeping count?

Telegraph: Daily Mail owner cuts 400 jobs as profits fall

Daily Mail & General Trust's (DMGT) Associated and Northcliffe newspaper divisions have already cut 400 jobs in the past two months as part of a £100m cost-cutting drive.

Posted by mark @ 05:46 PM 1 Comments

Goodbye Taylor Wimpey............................

Contract Journal: Taylor Wimpey faces new bank deadline of 1 January

As a result, Fitch has downgraded its rating on Taylor Wimpey’s debt from B to CCC which is well into “junk bond” territory. A forced liquidation is now a possibility, says Fitch. The credit rating agency says: “Fitch now believes default at Taylor Wimpey is a real possibility, with a distressed debt exchange, such as debt-for-equity swap, looking increasingly likely. “Although Fitch believes it less likely, a forced liquidation of the company is also a possibility.”

Posted by mark @ 04:53 PM 9 Comments

And the job losses keep growing without the magic beans

Bbc: Bosch jobs threat 'devastating'

It takes the number of job cuts threatened in Wales this week to more than 750, including 337 jobs at the Hoover factory in Merthyr Tydfil. Twenty jobs have also been cut at a drug factory in Ceredigion, and in north Wales 20 jobs will go in Llangefni and Denbigh at a farm machinery firm.

Posted by mark @ 04:43 PM 0 Comments

The higher the G number the less likely any concrete outcome...

New Statesman: Catastrophe averted?

The leaders of the rich countries went to Washington to save the world from sliding into deep recession. We asked key politicians, commentators and economists whether they succeeded and what we should expect, and hope for, in the coming weeks.

Posted by whostolemyendowment @ 03:59 PM 0 Comments

Add a News Blog Article

House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website	Period covered	Average house price	Monthly change (%)	Annual change (%)	Peak average house price	Change since peak (%)	Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index	Sep 08	£208,583	N/A	5.10	£221,758 (Jan 08)	5.94	11/11/2008
FT House Price Index (Acadametrics)	Oct 08	£216,097	1.20	6.20	£231,595 (Feb 08)	6.69	07/11/2008 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index	Oct 08	£168,176	2.20	13.70	£199,770 (Aug 07)	15.82	06/11/2008 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales)	Nov 08	N/A	1.30	3.70	N/A	N/A	12/11/2008 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey	Oct 08	N/A	1.30	7.30	N/A	N/A	27/10/2008
Land Registry Monthly Report	Sep 08	£168,814	2.20	8.00	£186,045 (Jan 08)	9.26	28/10/2008 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index	Oct 08	£158,872	1.40	14.60	£186,044 (Oct 07)	14.61	30/10/2008 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index	Nov 08	£222,979	2.90	7.10	£242,500 (May 08)	8.05	17/11/2008 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website	Period covered	Average house price	Monthly change (%)	Quarterly change (%)	Annual change (%)	Peak average house price	Change since peak (%)	Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index	Sep 08	£325,132	N/A	N/A	5.00	£351,096 (Jan 08)	7.40	11/11/2008
Halifax House Price Index	Q3 08	£269,723	N/A	7.00	16.50	£320,847 (Q3 07)	15.93	17/10/2008 (WORD)
Land Registry Monthly Report	Sep 08	£328,927	1.50	N/A	6.10	£357,976 (Jan 08)	8.11	28/10/2008 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index	Q3 08	£274,124	N/A	3.90	9.40	£303,739 (Q4 07)	9.75	02/10/2008 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index	Nov 08	£390,340	1.30	N/A	5.40	£412,731 (Nov 07)	5.43	17/11/2008 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

Source website	Analyst	Photo	Date prediction made	Amount predicted	Region	Time Period	Notes
National Housing Federation	David Orr		Jul 2008	25%	UK	2008-2013	National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
Jones Lang LaSalle	James Thomas		May 2008	7-9 %	UK	2010-2013	Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Allied Surveyors	Grant Robertson	N/A	Jan 2008	5-7 %	Scotland	2008	Amidst all the doom and gloom, Allied Surveyors are expecting Scottish house prices to increase above inflation in 2008.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Dec 2007	4%	Scotland	2008	Nationwide believes Scotland will be the strongest performing region next year.
Savills	Lucian Cook		Dec 2007	4%	Scotland	2008	Savills also thinks prices in Scotland will rise by 4 per cent in 2008.
Hometrack	Richard Donnell	N/A	Dec 2007	3%	Scotland	2008	Hometrack is forecasting price rises of 3 per cent.in Scotland for 2008.
Hometrack	Richard Donnell	N/A	Dec 2007	3%	Northern Ireland	2008	Hometrack is also forecasting price rises of 3 per cent.in Northern Ireland for 2008.
Knight Frank	Liam Bailey	N/A	Dec 2007	3%	London Prime	2008	Knight Frank's view is that prime London will cease to lead the UK market for the first time for two years.
Hometrack	Richard Donnell	N/A	Aug 2007	1-2 %	UK	2008	Hometrack sees near stagnation in the UK housing market for 2008.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Dec 2007	1%	London	2008	Nationwide is forecasting 1 per cent growth in London house prices this year.
Savills	Lucian Cook		Dec 2007	1%	Wales	2008	Savills is forecasting a slight increase of 1 per cent this year.
brightsale.co.uk	Jeremy Howard	N/A	Aug 2008	0%	UK	2008-2009	New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lombard Street Research	Diana Choyleva		Oct 2007	0%	UK	2008	Ms Choyleva believes that the recent Northern Rock crisis will be the final straw for the UK housing market.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Nov 2007	0%	UK	2008	Britain's biggest building society predicts stagnation and says that economic tailwinds will turn into headwinds.
Rightmove.co.uk	Miles Shipside		Dec 2007	0%	UK	2008	Miles Shipside expects a "period of stagnation" for prices in 2008, with most sellers still able to decide whether or not to drop their asking price.
United Trust Bank	Roger Tidyman	N/A	Jan 2008	0%	UK	2008	Roger Tidyman expects modest price falls in the first half of the year with some recovery in the second half of 2008 resulting in flat overall growth for 2008.
Jones Lang LaSalle	James Thomas		May 2008	1-3 %	UK	2009	Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Charcol.co.uk	Ray Boulger		Dec 2007	2%	UK	2008	Mortgage broker John Charcol predicts that property transactions will fall by 15 per cent in 2008, gross mortgage lending will fall from £360bn to £320bn but house prices will only fall by 2%.
CEBR	N/A	N/A	Jan 2008	3%	UK	2008	The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), forecast that average property prices will drop by 2.5% during 2008.
Knight Frank	Liam Bailey	N/A	Apr 2008	3%	UK	2008	Knight Frank has revised its forecast from a rise of 3 per cent in property prices this year to a fall of 3 per cent.
UBS	Amit Kara & Sunil Kapadia	N/A	Jan 2008	3%	UK	2008	UBS Economists say that the key issue for the housing market is "whether there will be a slow burn in house prices or whether there is scope for a hard landing.
BBC	Evan Davis		Dec 2007	5-10 %	UK	2008	Evan Davis expects that house prices will continue to fall, by 5-10% over the year. He also doesn't rule out the possibility of the falls being much bigger.
Capital Economics	Roger Bootle		Oct 2007	5%	UK	2008	Capital Economics see the economy slowing in 2008 and have cut their forecast yet again.
Lloyds TSB	Eric Daniels		Jul 2008	5%	UK	2009	Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Dec 2007	5%	Northern Ireland	2008	Nationwide is expecting Northern Ireland to be the weakest part of the country during 2008.
RICS	Simon Rubinsohn		May 2008	5%	UK	2008	Another revised forecast from RICS.
UK Government	Caroline Flint		May 2008	5-10 %	UK	2008	Caroline Flint, the Housing minister, inadvertently revealed that house price could fall up to 10% this year "at best".
Council of Mortgage Lenders	Michael Coogan		May 2008	7%	UK	2008	A substantial revised forecast from CML predicting a 7% fall in UK house prices this year.
Jones Lang LaSalle	James Thomas		May 2008	7-9 %	UK	2008	In a new forecast for the residential market, the estate agency predicts that the economy will progressively weaken over the course of the year.
Invesco Perpetual	Neil Woodford		Jan 2008	8-10 %	UK	2008	Neil Woodford, goes further than his prediction to say that areas which have seen a concentration of speculative development and buying, such as regional metropolitan centres, could be subject to much sharper falls.
Halifax	Martin Ellis	N/A	Jun 2008	9%	UK	2008	Halifax had earlier predicted that the decline would be less severe.
Institute of Economic Affairs	Philip Booth	N/A	Jan 2008	10%	UK	2008	Mr Booth says that more falls are possible after 2008 but also says that this should not affect the economy greatly as long as monetary policy is conducted appropriately.
Lloyds TSB	Eric Daniels		Jul 2008	10-15 %	UK	2008	Lloyds TSB wrote one in every four new mortgages in the six months to June but still predicts a 10-15% house price crash.
FirstRung.co.uk	Paul Holmes	N/A	Nov 2007	12%	UK	2008	The mortgage broker, firstrung said that predictions of gentle slowdowns were off the mark.
Global Insight	Howard Archer		Oct 2008	15%	UK	2009	Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 16% in 2008 followed by a further drop of 15% in 2009.
Global Insight	Howard Archer		Oct 2008	16%	UK	2008	Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 16% in 2008 followed by a further drop of 15% in 2009.
Fool.co.uk	David Kuo	N/A	Dec 2007	20%	UK	2008	David Kuo believes that the average price of a house could fall by up to a fifth to £157,290 in 2008.
London School of Economics	John Van Reenen		Jan 2008	20%	UK	2008-2009	John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
Morgan Stanley	David Miles		Mar 2008	20%	UK	2008-2009	David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Nationwide	Graham Beale		Sep 2008	25%	UK	2008-2010	Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Savills	Jeremy Helsby	N/A	Jul 2008	25%	London	2008-2009	The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
The Market Oracle	Andrew Butler	N/A	Sep 2008	25-30 %	UK	2008-2013	An updated prediction from Market Oracle.
Boom Bust	Fred Harrison		Jan 2008	30%	UK	2008-2012	Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of Economics	Willem Buiter	N/A	Jan 2008	30%	UK	2008-2009	Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Numis Securities	James Hamilton	N/A	Mar 2008	30%	UK	Not stated	James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Deloitte	Roger Bootle		Jul 2008	33%	UK	2008-2010	Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
Capital Economics	Roger Bootle		Jun 2008	35%	UK	2008-2010	Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Housepricecrash.co.uk	Jonathan Davis		Sep 2008	40-50 %	UK	2007-2011	New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
GMO	Jeremy Grantham	N/A	Jul 2008	50%	UK	Not stated	Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"

Predictions archive