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Latest: House Price Crash News

Friday, Jul 3 2009 Add a News Blog Article

Another record broken

Retuers: U.S. regulators close seven banks

FDIC has bailed out seven banks today. This is the highest number of failed banks in a single day ever, and the second week running that the record has been broken.

Posted by jonb @ 07:18 PM 0 Comments

Trying to Balance the Books

Telegraph: UK homeowners pay back a record £8.1bn of mortgage debt

"UK homeowners repaid a record amount of mortgage debt in the first quarter of the year, in the latest sign that the credit crunch is forcing Britons off a decade-long spending splurge.Britons injected £8.1bn to pay off their mortgage debt in the first three months of 2009, the Bank of England said on Friday, as falling house prices, greater caution and tighter credit conditions prompted a change in habits".

Posted by alan @ 05:03 PM 1 Comments

From +85% to -2%

This is Money: My buy-to-let barometer swings from plus to minus

It seems search engine interest in buy-to-let, the sharp end of property interest, has plunged in recent months. So surely that will begin to filter through to the market shortly and snuff out the recent revival, won't it?

Posted by v idiot @ 04:59 PM 0 Comments

Willem Buiter proposes Debt Jubilee

FT: Quantitative easing, credit easing and enhanced credit support aren’t working; here’s why.

I propose a combination of mandatory recapitalisation of the banks and a debt Jubilee for the household sector to remove the two key obstacles to an economic revival.

Posted by devo @ 02:25 PM 11 Comments

Indian IT staff taking British jobs at Lloyds Banking Group

Mail Online: Indian IT staff taking British jobs at Lloyds Banking Group

Hundreds' of Indian contractors are being brought to the UK by state-backed Lloyds Banking Group, which is using them to slowly replace British IT workers. At the same time Llloyds Banking Group announced the biggest single jobs cull yet under its integration programme as it axed another 2,113 workers, taking the total cuts so far to 7,500.

Posted by phil9134 @ 02:13 PM 16 Comments

Prices are rising so the market must have bottomed eh?

Write About Property: Worst of UK House Price Falls Over - Yeah Right

Addressing a Treasury Select Committee on his appointment to the interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, Miles said: "Expectations are crucial in the housing market and they look a bit better now than a few months ago. My hunch -- and I put it no stronger than that -- is that we have seen most of the overall aggregate house price falls." If I was his boss at the Monetary Policy Committee, I would have sacked him there and then.

Posted by problem pete @ 12:53 PM 0 Comments

Why the crash isn't over

Renegade Economist: Talkshow 3rd July

Fred Harrison shares his thoughts on when the housing market is going to recover and why this crash is so different to the 90’s. Views that you won't get from BoE.

Posted by neo-serf @ 12:43 PM 6 Comments

Those who caused the crisis reap their rewards.

Daily Mail: Goldman Sachs staff in line for record average bonus of £430,000

Apparently the banking crisis is over - workers at Goldman Sachs are set to receive record bonuses of £430,000 ($700,000) each this year, totalling £12.2billion Furious reaction has been fired from critics who say that it is this system of lavish bonuses - and the resultant culture of greed - which got the world into the economic mess it is currently languishing in.

Posted by devo @ 09:09 AM 51 Comments

General Consensus Further 10% Falls this Year

Independent: The Big Question: Is the housing crash finally over, and is the market now recovering

Once you get past Mr Miles and his "hunch" this is quite a balanced article. "So what indeed. In the housing slump of the early 1990s there were 17 months when house prices rose, even though the overall trend was firmly downward – a downwards staircase pattern rather than a ski slope. Most graphs in economics exhibit a certain amount of volatility or "noise". ...... ..Some say the current revival in house prices is simply a function of special factors, such as the release of pent-up demand from cash buyers or those with very large deposits. They have been waiting for signals that the market may have bottomed out and are now taking advantage. However, by their nature, these sorts of buyers are neither very large in number nor a sustainable source of strength for the market......"

Posted by sybil13 @ 07:39 AM 20 Comments

Green shoots turn into brown heap

RGE ecomonitor: Job Report Suggests that Green Shoots are Mostly Yellow Weeds

The OECD believe its worse in England than in the USA. In the USA yesterdays massive unemployment news has demonstrated to many leading economists that there are no green shoots at all. We are still deep in recession and its going to get worse without doubt according to Nouriel Roubini who correctly predicted the downturn to begin with. House prices which have already fallen 27% will fall a futher 40% in the USA - so if its worse in England lets hope all the property crazed idiots are bracing themselves for the real down turn most of which is yet to come.

Posted by jb100 @ 06:08 AM 2 Comments

View More News Posts >>

House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Apr 09 £189,215 N/A 13.00 Tick£221,758 (Jan 08) 14.6809/06/2009
FT House Price Index (Acadametrics) May 09 £197,145 0.70 14.10 Cross£231,595 (Feb 08) 14.8812/06/2009 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index May 09 £158,565 2.60 16.30 Tick£199,770 (Aug 07) 20.6304/06/2009 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Jun 09 N/A 0.10 5.50 Cross N/A N/A 12/06/2009 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey 29/06/09 Jun 09 N/A 0.30 10.10 Cross N/A N/A 29/06/2009
Land Registry Monthly Report May 09 £152,497 0.20 15.90 Tick£186,045 (Jan 08) 18.0326/06/2009 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index 30/06/09 Jun 09 £156,442 0.90 9.30 Tick£186,044 (Oct 07) 15.9130/06/2009 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jun 09 £226,436 0.40 5.50 Tick£242,500 (May 08) 6.6222/06/2009 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Apr 09 £288,507 N/A N/A 15.00 Tick£351,096 (Jan 08) 17.8309/06/2009
Halifax House Price Index Q1 09 £241,306 N/A N/A 20.90 Cross£320,847 (Q3 07) 24.7924/04/2009 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report May 09 £295,325 1.50 N/A 16.10 Tick£357,976 (Jan 08) 17.5026/06/2009 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index 30/06/09 Q2 09 £256,496 N/A 4.80 10.10 Cross£303,739 (Q4 07) 15.5530/06/2009 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jun 09 £397,140 0.10 N/A 0.50 Tick£412,731 (Nov 07) 3.7822/06/2009 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Housepricecrash.co.ukJonathan DavisPhoto of Jonathan DavisSep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive