The highlights on this website
- Have your say in our popular discussion forum
- Check out the latest House Price Statistics
- See the predictions for UK House Prices
- Read economic papers on the House Price Crash subject
'Must read/watch' external links
- Don't believe the Estate Agents! Visit OurProperty.co.uk to find out the actual sold house prices direct from the Land Registry database
- See real price reductions in your area, visit www.propertysnake.co.uk
- UK Property Podcast: how low will it go? (mp3 - 13.6Mb - 59 minutes)
- An overview of what's happening with house prices in your area with the BBC
- Forgotten the last crash? Watch the spitting image video on YouTube
- George Soros speaks about a hard landing for US house prices on YouTube
- Visit the first-time buyer campaigning website www.pricedout.org.uk
- UK Housing - Moon-Bound or Pear-Shaped?
- ABN Amro report - "...the UK housing market could be more vulnerable to a correction than the US" (PDF - 162kb)
- Chris Parker's excellent house price crash flash movie
A permanent meetup/networking resource for hpc.co.uk
Meetup: Housepricecrash meetup group
Meetup group to organise titan's meetups and to allow members to contact each other independently. You only need to add an e-mail address and username. Clearly, if you want privacy, get a spoof e-mail address.
Ignorance is bliss
BBC: People 'unaware' of pension risks
Millions of people are being encouraged to take too much risk with their pensions, the government-funded Pensions Advisory Service has warned. It said workers who pay into pension schemes which invest heavily in shares may not be aware of the risks.
Can anyone tell more about this, sky and yahoo are stuck for words
Yahoo: HBOS Crisis Nearly Wiped Out Virgin
HBOS Crisis Nearly Wiped Out Virgin
Doesn't Matter What The BoE Does.
BBC NEWS: Interbank lending in deep freeze
"The rate at which banks lend to each other has risen despite aggressive measures from governments worldwide to tackle the credit freeze." .................. "Three-month Sterling Libor has risen to 6.285%, while three-month euro Libor stands at 5.366% - near 14-year highs."
The Ghost Train in the Underground.
Daily Mail: Welcome to Britain
A current perspective, although open for interpretation , the train driver is Gordon and the tramp is the economy,or maybe the train? The hoodie, a refugee from canary wharf .God bless .
The hair-trigger mentality of the market was evident from the opening bell.
SOTT For Assoc Press: U.S. Stocks end worst week mixed after wild session
NEW YORK - Wall Street capped its worst week ever with a wild session Friday that left stocks with a widely mixed finish. Late-day buying helped curb steep losses and gave the market its best showing of the week as investors snapped up bargains among stocks devastated by seven days of massive losses. The Nasdaq composite index finished with a modest gain, while the Dow Jones industrials lost 128 points, a relatively mild drop after the blue chips fell 2,271 during the previous eight trading days. Still, the Dow, which traded in a range of 1,019 points Friday, had its worst week ever, as did the Standard & Poor's 500 index. "Fear has been running rampant all over the Street. Fear and greed, that's what rules the Street. I think the carcass has been stripped to the bone,"
'After the horse has bolted' comes to mind
Telegraph: Negative equity is not so scary if you've planned ahead for it. By Edmund Conway
...we are facing the worst housing crash since the 1930s, not to mention the worst financial crisis. But the first piece of advice I give is still the same: you should only buy a place if you are sure you can afford it, and provided you don't assume the price will go up.
Friday, Oct 10, 2008 
Another chap who's been predicting this for years.
Bob Chapman's - The International Forecaster: Massive Gains Wiped Out in Markets Despite Everyone Being Warned
(includes interesting analysis of commodities markets, that I confess to not fully understand) "Indeed, the party is over. You have all watched in horror as five years worth of stock market gains have been vaporized since the peak on October 9, 2007, almost exactly one year ago, when the Dow closed at a bogus 14,164.53. All the gains for the past 8 plus years have been illusory, and the losses suffered over the past year are the direct outcome of an economy that has been based on nothing but smoke and mirrors ever since the dot.com collapse in 2000. - The bailout was a stealth bailout of the Federal Reserve Bank itself, which was almost bankrupt. - AIG could potentially take down the entire European banking sector due to swaps it had insured on European banks.
Gordon Browns government accused of complacency over Icelandic Banks
BBC: UK 'ignored Iceland bank warning'
Gordon Browns government has been accused of "complacency" after it apparently ignored warnings in July that Icelandic banks were facing collapse as Lib Dem peer Lord Oakeshott and Tory MP Michael Fallon both raised the issue with ministers on separate occasions.
The banking crisis is just chills before the flu sets in
Reuters News - James Saft: What comes after the Great Unwind?
While the banking crisis is deadly serious, even when its over the Anglo Saxon economies have the hard part yet to do. Saving more, spending less and exporting god knows what to god knows who. Ugly
House Price Statistics - UK National
| Source website | Period covered | Average house price |
Monthly change (%) |
Annual change (%) |
Archive /Graph | Peak average house price |
Change since peak (%) |
Official releases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communities and Local Government House Price Index | Jul 08 | £217,171 | N/A | 0.30 |
£221,758 (Jan 08) | 2.07 | 16/09/2008 | |
| FT House Price Index (Acadametrics) |
Sep 08 | £219,307 | 1.10 |
4.30 |
£231,595 (Feb 08) | 5.31 | 10/10/2008 (PDF) | |
| Halifax House Price Index |
Sep 08 | £172,108 | 1.30 |
12.40 |
£199,770 (Aug 07) | 13.85 | 09/10/2008 (PDF) | |
| Home.co.uk (England and Wales) | Sep 08 | N/A | 0.90 |
2.50 |
N/A | N/A | 12/09/2008 (PDF) | |
| Hometrack - Monthly National Survey | Sep 08 | N/A | 1.00 |
6.20 |
N/A | N/A | 29/09/2008 | |
| Land Registry Monthly Report | Aug 08 | £174,493 | 1.90 |
4.60 |
£186,045 (Jan 08) | 6.21 | 26/09/2008 (PDF) | |
| Nationwide House Price Index | Sep 08 | £161,797 | 1.70 |
12.40 |
£186,044 (Oct 07) | 13.03 | 02/10/2008 (PDF) | |
| Rightmove House Price Index | Sep 08 | £227,438 | 1.00 |
3.30 |
£242,500 (May 08) | 6.21 | 22/09/2008 (PDF) |
House Price Statistics - Greater London
| Source website | Period covered | Average house price |
Monthly change (%) |
Quarterly change (%) |
Annual change (%) |
Archive /Graph | Peak average house price |
Change since peak (%) |
Official releases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communities and Local Government House Price Index | Jul 08 | £343,182 | N/A | N/A | 0.00 |
£351,096 (Jan 08) | 2.25 | 16/09/2008 | |
| Halifax House Price Index | Q2 08 | £291,533 | N/A | 4.30 |
7.30 |
£320,847 (Q3 07) | 9.14 | 25/07/2008 (WORD) | |
| Land Registry Monthly Report | Aug 08 | £336,620 | 2.40 |
N/A | 3.20 |
£357,976 (Jan 08) | 5.97 | 26/09/2008 (PDF) | |
| Nationwide House Price Index | Q3 08 | £274,124 | N/A | 3.90 |
9.40 |
£303,739 (Q4 07) | 9.75 | 02/10/2008 (PDF) | |
| Rightmove House Price Index | Sep 08 | £394,248 | 4.00 |
N/A | 2.60 |
£412,731 (Nov 07) | 4.48 | 22/09/2008 (PDF) |
Archive of old house price surveys
House Price Predictions
If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.
| Source website | Analyst | Photo | Date prediction made | Amount predicted | Region | Time Period | Evidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Housing Federation | David Orr | Jul 2008 | 25% | UK | 2008-2013 | National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash. | ||
| Jones Lang LaSalle | James Thomas | May 2008 | 7-9 % | UK | 2010-2013 | Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013. | ||
| Allied Surveyors | Grant Robertson | N/A | Jan 2008 | 5-7 % | Scotland | 2008 | Amidst all the doom and gloom, Allied Surveyors are expecting Scottish house prices to increase above inflation in 2008. | |
| Nationwide | Fionnuala Earley | Dec 2007 | 4% | Scotland | 2008 | Nationwide believes Scotland will be the strongest performing region next year. | ||
| Savills | Lucian Cook | Dec 2007 | 4% | Scotland | 2008 | Savills also thinks prices in Scotland will rise by 4 per cent in 2008. | ||
| Hometrack | Richard Donnell | N/A | Dec 2007 | 3% | Scotland | 2008 | Hometrack is forecasting price rises of 3 per cent.in Scotland for 2008. | |
| Hometrack | Richard Donnell | N/A | Dec 2007 | 3% | Northern Ireland | 2008 | Hometrack is also forecasting price rises of 3 per cent.in Northern Ireland for 2008. | |
| Knight Frank | Liam Bailey | N/A | Dec 2007 | 3% | London Prime | 2008 | Knight Frank's view is that prime London will cease to lead the UK market for the first time for two years. | |
| Hometrack | Richard Donnell | N/A | Aug 2007 | 1-2 % | UK | 2008 | Hometrack sees near stagnation in the UK housing market for 2008. | |
| Nationwide | Fionnuala Earley | Dec 2007 | 1% | London | 2008 | Nationwide is forecasting 1 per cent growth in London house prices this year. | ||
| Savills | Lucian Cook | Dec 2007 | 1% | Wales | 2008 | Savills is forecasting a slight increase of 1 per cent this year. | ||
| brightsale.co.uk | Jeremy Howard | N/A | Aug 2008 | 0% | UK | 2008-2009 | New research from BrightSale
suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to
long-term equilibrium | |
| Lombard Street Research | Diana Choyleva | Oct 2007 | 0% | UK | 2008 | Ms Choyleva believes that the recent Northern Rock crisis will be the final straw for the UK housing market. | ||
| Nationwide | Fionnuala Earley | Nov 2007 | 0% | UK | 2008 | Britain's biggest building society predicts stagnation and says that economic tailwinds will turn into headwinds. | ||
| Rightmove.co.uk | Miles Shipside | Dec 2007 | 0% | UK | 2008 | Miles Shipside expects a "period of stagnation" for prices in 2008, with most sellers still able to decide whether or not to drop their asking price. | ||
| United Trust Bank | Roger Tidyman | N/A | Jan 2008 | 0% | UK | 2008 | Roger Tidyman expects modest price falls in the first half of the year with some recovery in the second half of 2008 resulting in flat overall growth for 2008. | |
| Jones Lang LaSalle | James Thomas | May 2008 | 1-3 % | UK | 2009 | Minor falls predicted for 2009. | ||
| Charcol.co.uk | Ray Boulger | Dec 2007 | 2% | UK | 2008 | Mortgage broker John Charcol predicts that property transactions will fall by 15 per cent in 2008, gross mortgage lending will fall from £360bn to £320bn but house prices will only fall by 2%. | ||
| CEBR | N/A | N/A | Jan 2008 | 3% | UK | 2008 | The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), forecast that average property prices will drop by 2.5% during 2008. | |
| Knight Frank | Liam Bailey | N/A | Apr 2008 | 3% | UK | 2008 | Knight Frank has revised its forecast from a rise of 3 per cent in property prices this year to a fall of 3 per cent. | |
| UBS | Amit Kara & Sunil Kapadia | N/A | Jan 2008 | 3% | UK | 2008 | UBS Economists say that the key issue for the housing market is "whether there will be a slow burn in house prices or whether there is scope for a hard landing. | |
| BBC | Evan Davis | Dec 2007 | 5-10 % | UK | 2008 | Evan Davis expects that house prices will continue to fall, by 5-10% over the year. He also doesn't rule out the possibility of the falls being much bigger. | ||
| Capital Economics | Roger Bootle | Oct 2007 | 5% | UK | 2008 | Capital Economics see the economy slowing in 2008 and have cut their forecast yet again. | ||
| Lloyds TSB | Eric Daniels | Jul 2008 | 5% | UK | 2009 | Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008. | ||
| Nationwide | Fionnuala Earley | Dec 2007 | 5% | Northern Ireland | 2008 | Nationwide is expecting Northern Ireland to be the weakest part of the country during 2008. | ||
| RICS | Simon Rubinsohn | May 2008 | 5% | UK | 2008 | Another revised forecast from RICS. | ||
| UK Government | Caroline Flint | May 2008 | 5-10 % | UK | 2008 | Caroline Flint, the Housing minister, inadvertently revealed that house price could fall up to 10% this year "at best". | ||
| Council of Mortgage Lenders | Michael Coogan | May 2008 | 7% | UK | 2008 | A substantial revised forecast from CML predicting a 7% fall in UK house prices this year. | ||
| Jones Lang LaSalle | James Thomas | May 2008 | 7-9 % | UK | 2008 | In a new forecast for the residential market, the estate agency predicts that the economy will progressively weaken over the course of the year. | ||
| Invesco Perpetual | Neil Woodford | Jan 2008 | 8-10 % | UK | 2008 | Neil Woodford, goes further than his prediction to say that areas which have seen a concentration of speculative development and buying, such as regional metropolitan centres, could be subject to much sharper falls. | ||
| Halifax | Martin Ellis | N/A | Jun 2008 | 9% | UK | 2008 | Halifax had earlier predicted that the decline would be less severe. | |
| Institute of Economic Affairs | Philip Booth | N/A | Jan 2008 | 10% | UK | 2008 | Mr Booth says that more falls are possible after 2008 but also says that this should not affect the economy greatly as long as monetary policy is conducted appropriately. | |
| Lloyds TSB | Eric Daniels | Jul 2008 | 10-15 % | UK | 2008 | Lloyds TSB wrote one in every four new mortgages in the six months to June but still predicts a 10-15% house price crash. | ||
| FirstRung.co.uk | Paul Holmes | N/A | Nov 2007 | 12% | UK | 2008 | The mortgage broker, firstrung said that predictions of gentle slowdowns were off the mark. | |
| Global Insight | Howard Archer | Oct 2008 | 15% | UK | 2009 | Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 16% in 2008 followed by a further drop of 15% in 2009. | ||
| Global Insight | Howard Archer | Oct 2008 | 16% | UK | 2008 | Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 16% in 2008 followed by a further drop of 15% in 2009. | ||
| Fool.co.uk | David Kuo | N/A | Dec 2007 | 20% | UK | 2008 | David Kuo believes that the average price of a house could fall by up to a fifth to £157,290 in 2008. | |
| London School of Economics | John Van Reenen | Jan 2008 | 20% | UK | 2008-2009 | John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction. | ||
| Morgan Stanley | David Miles | Mar 2008 | 20% | UK | 2008-2009 | David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years. | ||
| Nationwide | Graham Beale | Sep 2008 | 25% | UK | 2008-2010 | Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery. | ||
| Savills | Jeremy Helsby | N/A | Jul 2008 | 25% | London | 2008-2009 | The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year. | |
| The Market Oracle | Andrew Butler | N/A | Sep 2008 | 25-30 % | UK | 2008-2013 | An updated prediction from Market Oracle. | |
| Boom Bust | Fred Harrison | Jan 2008 | 30% | UK | 2008-2012 | Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%. | ||
| London School of Economics | Willem Buiter | N/A | Jan 2008 | 30% | UK | 2008-2009 | Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters. | |
| Numis Securities | James Hamilton | N/A | Mar 2008 | 30% | UK | Not stated | James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop) | |
| Deloitte | Roger Bootle | Jul 2008 | 33% | UK | 2008-2010 | Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment. | ||
| Capital Economics | Roger Bootle | Jun 2008 | 35% | UK | 2008-2010 | Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market. | ||
| Housepricecrash.co.uk | Jonathan Davis | Sep 2007 | 35% | UK | 2008-2012 | In our view, history and economics leads us to believe that the boom is over and there will be a gradual and cumulative fall annually from this point forward. | ||
| GMO | Jeremy Grantham | N/A | Jul 2008 | 50% | UK | Not stated | Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK
house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower
level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of
income!" |

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