The highlights on this website

Have your say in our popular discussion forum
Check out the latest House Price Statistics
See the predictions for UK House Prices
Read economic papers on the House Price Crash subject

'Must read/watch' external links

Don't believe the Estate Agents! Visit OurProperty.co.uk to find out the actual sold house prices direct from the Land Registry database
See real price reductions in your area, visit www.propertysnake.co.uk
UK Property Podcast: how low will it go? (mp3 - 13.6Mb - 59 minutes)

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An overview of what's happening with house prices in your area with the BBC
Forgotten the last crash? Watch the spitting image video on YouTube
George Soros speaks about a hard landing for US house prices on YouTube
Visit the first-time buyer campaigning website www.pricedout.org.uk
UK Housing - Moon-Bound or Pear-Shaped?
ABN Amro report - "...the UK housing market could be more vulnerable to a correction than the US" (PDF - 162kb)
Chris Parker's excellent house price crash flash movie

Saturday, Oct 11, 2008

A permanent meetup/networking resource for hpc.co.uk

Meetup: Housepricecrash meetup group

Meetup group to organise titan's meetups and to allow members to contact each other independently. You only need to add an e-mail address and username. Clearly, if you want privacy, get a spoof e-mail address.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 01:25 PM 0 Comments

Ignorance is bliss

BBC: People 'unaware' of pension risks

Millions of people are being encouraged to take too much risk with their pensions, the government-funded Pensions Advisory Service has warned. It said workers who pay into pension schemes which invest heavily in shares may not be aware of the risks.

Posted by stevie dee @ 10:22 AM 14 Comments

Can anyone tell more about this, sky and yahoo are stuck for words

Yahoo: HBOS Crisis Nearly Wiped Out Virgin

HBOS Crisis Nearly Wiped Out Virgin

Posted by mark @ 10:11 AM 24 Comments

Doesn't Matter What The BoE Does.

BBC NEWS: Interbank lending in deep freeze

"The rate at which banks lend to each other has risen despite aggressive measures from governments worldwide to tackle the credit freeze." .................. "Three-month Sterling Libor has risen to 6.285%, while three-month euro Libor stands at 5.366% - near 14-year highs."

Posted by renting2 @ 09:43 AM 12 Comments

The Ghost Train in the Underground.

Daily Mail: Welcome to Britain

A current perspective, although open for interpretation , the train driver is Gordon and the tramp is the economy,or maybe the train? The hoodie, a refugee from canary wharf .God bless .

Posted by camping @ 09:08 AM 2 Comments

The hair-trigger mentality of the market was evident from the opening bell.

SOTT For Assoc Press: U.S. Stocks end worst week mixed after wild session

NEW YORK - Wall Street capped its worst week ever with a wild session Friday that left stocks with a widely mixed finish. Late-day buying helped curb steep losses and gave the market its best showing of the week as investors snapped up bargains among stocks devastated by seven days of massive losses. The Nasdaq composite index finished with a modest gain, while the Dow Jones industrials lost 128 points, a relatively mild drop after the blue chips fell 2,271 during the previous eight trading days. Still, the Dow, which traded in a range of 1,019 points Friday, had its worst week ever, as did the Standard & Poor's 500 index. "Fear has been running rampant all over the Street. Fear and greed, that's what rules the Street. I think the carcass has been stripped to the bone,"

Posted by malct @ 08:51 AM 2 Comments

'After the horse has bolted' comes to mind

Telegraph: Negative equity is not so scary if you've planned ahead for it. By Edmund Conway

...we are facing the worst housing crash since the 1930s, not to mention the worst financial crisis. But the first piece of advice I give is still the same: you should only buy a place if you are sure you can afford it, and provided you don't assume the price will go up.

Posted by suzyandjoe @ 07:48 AM 0 Comments

Friday, Oct 10, 2008

Another chap who's been predicting this for years.

Bob Chapman's - The International Forecaster: Massive Gains Wiped Out in Markets Despite Everyone Being Warned

(includes interesting analysis of commodities markets, that I confess to not fully understand) "Indeed, the party is over. You have all watched in horror as five years worth of stock market gains have been vaporized since the peak on October 9, 2007, almost exactly one year ago, when the Dow closed at a bogus 14,164.53. All the gains for the past 8 plus years have been illusory, and the losses suffered over the past year are the direct outcome of an economy that has been based on nothing but smoke and mirrors ever since the dot.com collapse in 2000. - The bailout was a stealth bailout of the Federal Reserve Bank itself, which was almost bankrupt. - AIG could potentially take down the entire European banking sector due to swaps it had insured on European banks.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 11:34 PM 3 Comments

Gordon Browns government accused of complacency over Icelandic Banks

BBC: UK 'ignored Iceland bank warning'

Gordon Browns government has been accused of "complacency" after it apparently ignored warnings in July that Icelandic banks were facing collapse as Lib Dem peer Lord Oakeshott and Tory MP Michael Fallon both raised the issue with ministers on separate occasions.

Posted by enuii @ 10:53 PM 5 Comments

The banking crisis is just chills before the flu sets in

Reuters News - James Saft: What comes after the Great Unwind?

While the banking crisis is deadly serious, even when its over the Anglo Saxon economies have the hard part yet to do. Saving more, spending less and exporting god knows what to god knows who. Ugly

Posted by edna freefall @ 09:07 PM 0 Comments

Add a News Blog Article

House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website	Period covered	Average house price	Monthly change (%)	Annual change (%)	Peak average house price	Change since peak (%)	Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index	Jul 08	£217,171	N/A	0.30	£221,758 (Jan 08)	2.07	16/09/2008
FT House Price Index (Acadametrics)	Sep 08	£219,307	1.10	4.30	£231,595 (Feb 08)	5.31	10/10/2008 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index	Sep 08	£172,108	1.30	12.40	£199,770 (Aug 07)	13.85	09/10/2008 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales)	Sep 08	N/A	0.90	2.50	N/A	N/A	12/09/2008 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey	Sep 08	N/A	1.00	6.20	N/A	N/A	29/09/2008
Land Registry Monthly Report	Aug 08	£174,493	1.90	4.60	£186,045 (Jan 08)	6.21	26/09/2008 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index	Sep 08	£161,797	1.70	12.40	£186,044 (Oct 07)	13.03	02/10/2008 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index	Sep 08	£227,438	1.00	3.30	£242,500 (May 08)	6.21	22/09/2008 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website	Period covered	Average house price	Monthly change (%)	Quarterly change (%)	Annual change (%)	Peak average house price	Change since peak (%)	Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index	Jul 08	£343,182	N/A	N/A	0.00	£351,096 (Jan 08)	2.25	16/09/2008
Halifax House Price Index	Q2 08	£291,533	N/A	4.30	7.30	£320,847 (Q3 07)	9.14	25/07/2008 (WORD)
Land Registry Monthly Report	Aug 08	£336,620	2.40	N/A	3.20	£357,976 (Jan 08)	5.97	26/09/2008 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index	Q3 08	£274,124	N/A	3.90	9.40	£303,739 (Q4 07)	9.75	02/10/2008 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index	Sep 08	£394,248	4.00	N/A	2.60	£412,731 (Nov 07)	4.48	22/09/2008 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

Source website	Analyst	Photo	Date prediction made	Amount predicted	Region	Time Period	Notes
National Housing Federation	David Orr		Jul 2008	25%	UK	2008-2013	National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
Jones Lang LaSalle	James Thomas		May 2008	7-9 %	UK	2010-2013	Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Allied Surveyors	Grant Robertson	N/A	Jan 2008	5-7 %	Scotland	2008	Amidst all the doom and gloom, Allied Surveyors are expecting Scottish house prices to increase above inflation in 2008.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Dec 2007	4%	Scotland	2008	Nationwide believes Scotland will be the strongest performing region next year.
Savills	Lucian Cook		Dec 2007	4%	Scotland	2008	Savills also thinks prices in Scotland will rise by 4 per cent in 2008.
Hometrack	Richard Donnell	N/A	Dec 2007	3%	Scotland	2008	Hometrack is forecasting price rises of 3 per cent.in Scotland for 2008.
Hometrack	Richard Donnell	N/A	Dec 2007	3%	Northern Ireland	2008	Hometrack is also forecasting price rises of 3 per cent.in Northern Ireland for 2008.
Knight Frank	Liam Bailey	N/A	Dec 2007	3%	London Prime	2008	Knight Frank's view is that prime London will cease to lead the UK market for the first time for two years.
Hometrack	Richard Donnell	N/A	Aug 2007	1-2 %	UK	2008	Hometrack sees near stagnation in the UK housing market for 2008.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Dec 2007	1%	London	2008	Nationwide is forecasting 1 per cent growth in London house prices this year.
Savills	Lucian Cook		Dec 2007	1%	Wales	2008	Savills is forecasting a slight increase of 1 per cent this year.
brightsale.co.uk	Jeremy Howard	N/A	Aug 2008	0%	UK	2008-2009	New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lombard Street Research	Diana Choyleva		Oct 2007	0%	UK	2008	Ms Choyleva believes that the recent Northern Rock crisis will be the final straw for the UK housing market.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Nov 2007	0%	UK	2008	Britain's biggest building society predicts stagnation and says that economic tailwinds will turn into headwinds.
Rightmove.co.uk	Miles Shipside		Dec 2007	0%	UK	2008	Miles Shipside expects a "period of stagnation" for prices in 2008, with most sellers still able to decide whether or not to drop their asking price.
United Trust Bank	Roger Tidyman	N/A	Jan 2008	0%	UK	2008	Roger Tidyman expects modest price falls in the first half of the year with some recovery in the second half of 2008 resulting in flat overall growth for 2008.
Jones Lang LaSalle	James Thomas		May 2008	1-3 %	UK	2009	Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Charcol.co.uk	Ray Boulger		Dec 2007	2%	UK	2008	Mortgage broker John Charcol predicts that property transactions will fall by 15 per cent in 2008, gross mortgage lending will fall from £360bn to £320bn but house prices will only fall by 2%.
CEBR	N/A	N/A	Jan 2008	3%	UK	2008	The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), forecast that average property prices will drop by 2.5% during 2008.
Knight Frank	Liam Bailey	N/A	Apr 2008	3%	UK	2008	Knight Frank has revised its forecast from a rise of 3 per cent in property prices this year to a fall of 3 per cent.
UBS	Amit Kara & Sunil Kapadia	N/A	Jan 2008	3%	UK	2008	UBS Economists say that the key issue for the housing market is "whether there will be a slow burn in house prices or whether there is scope for a hard landing.
BBC	Evan Davis		Dec 2007	5-10 %	UK	2008	Evan Davis expects that house prices will continue to fall, by 5-10% over the year. He also doesn't rule out the possibility of the falls being much bigger.
Capital Economics	Roger Bootle		Oct 2007	5%	UK	2008	Capital Economics see the economy slowing in 2008 and have cut their forecast yet again.
Lloyds TSB	Eric Daniels		Jul 2008	5%	UK	2009	Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Dec 2007	5%	Northern Ireland	2008	Nationwide is expecting Northern Ireland to be the weakest part of the country during 2008.
RICS	Simon Rubinsohn		May 2008	5%	UK	2008	Another revised forecast from RICS.
UK Government	Caroline Flint		May 2008	5-10 %	UK	2008	Caroline Flint, the Housing minister, inadvertently revealed that house price could fall up to 10% this year "at best".
Council of Mortgage Lenders	Michael Coogan		May 2008	7%	UK	2008	A substantial revised forecast from CML predicting a 7% fall in UK house prices this year.
Jones Lang LaSalle	James Thomas		May 2008	7-9 %	UK	2008	In a new forecast for the residential market, the estate agency predicts that the economy will progressively weaken over the course of the year.
Invesco Perpetual	Neil Woodford		Jan 2008	8-10 %	UK	2008	Neil Woodford, goes further than his prediction to say that areas which have seen a concentration of speculative development and buying, such as regional metropolitan centres, could be subject to much sharper falls.
Halifax	Martin Ellis	N/A	Jun 2008	9%	UK	2008	Halifax had earlier predicted that the decline would be less severe.
Institute of Economic Affairs	Philip Booth	N/A	Jan 2008	10%	UK	2008	Mr Booth says that more falls are possible after 2008 but also says that this should not affect the economy greatly as long as monetary policy is conducted appropriately.
Lloyds TSB	Eric Daniels		Jul 2008	10-15 %	UK	2008	Lloyds TSB wrote one in every four new mortgages in the six months to June but still predicts a 10-15% house price crash.
FirstRung.co.uk	Paul Holmes	N/A	Nov 2007	12%	UK	2008	The mortgage broker, firstrung said that predictions of gentle slowdowns were off the mark.
Global Insight	Howard Archer		Oct 2008	15%	UK	2009	Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 16% in 2008 followed by a further drop of 15% in 2009.
Global Insight	Howard Archer		Oct 2008	16%	UK	2008	Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 16% in 2008 followed by a further drop of 15% in 2009.
Fool.co.uk	David Kuo	N/A	Dec 2007	20%	UK	2008	David Kuo believes that the average price of a house could fall by up to a fifth to £157,290 in 2008.
London School of Economics	John Van Reenen		Jan 2008	20%	UK	2008-2009	John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
Morgan Stanley	David Miles		Mar 2008	20%	UK	2008-2009	David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Nationwide	Graham Beale		Sep 2008	25%	UK	2008-2010	Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Savills	Jeremy Helsby	N/A	Jul 2008	25%	London	2008-2009	The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
The Market Oracle	Andrew Butler	N/A	Sep 2008	25-30 %	UK	2008-2013	An updated prediction from Market Oracle.
Boom Bust	Fred Harrison		Jan 2008	30%	UK	2008-2012	Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of Economics	Willem Buiter	N/A	Jan 2008	30%	UK	2008-2009	Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Numis Securities	James Hamilton	N/A	Mar 2008	30%	UK	Not stated	James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Deloitte	Roger Bootle		Jul 2008	33%	UK	2008-2010	Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
Capital Economics	Roger Bootle		Jun 2008	35%	UK	2008-2010	Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Housepricecrash.co.uk	Jonathan Davis		Sep 2007	35%	UK	2008-2012	In our view, history and economics leads us to believe that the boom is over and there will be a gradual and cumulative fall annually from this point forward.
GMO	Jeremy Grantham	N/A	Jul 2008	50%	UK	Not stated	Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"

Predictions archive